A new study shows that golf is the hardest professional sport to predict a winner, when compared to other individual sports over the past 20 years, including tennis, snooker, badminton and squash.
Results found that from 2004-2024, winners of a Major golf championship were more likely to have had a lower world ranking (WR), when compared to champions in other individual sports.
The average world ranking for golf’s winners was 18, the lowest amongst all sports tested.
Tennis served up as the next most unpredictable sport, as results analysed from the same period found that winners of major tennis tournaments had an average world ranking of 10, an 8-point difference when compared to golf.
Snooker champions have also typically been ranked at least 10th in the world or under, when winning one of the major championships on the circuit, whereas badminton or squash came in as largely more predictable – with winners averaging a rank of 4th or 3rd in the world respectively.
Public sentiment on golf versus other sports was also analysed, with golf emerging as the most unpredictable sport when it came to playing consistently and watching.
Over a third (39%) claimed that golf was the sport they considered to be the most unpredictable overall – more than double the amount of the next sport, football (19%) and quadruple that of the next individual sport, tennis (9%).
Similarly, golf fans were the least confident when it came to forecasting a correct winner – with a confidence level 10% lower than that of tennis fans, and 30% less than Formula 1 enthusiasts.
Furthermore, golfers reported the least consistency in their own performance compared to participants of all other sports tested – again scoring 10% lower than that of the next sport, tennis.
The Open
Over the last 20 years, The Open has shown the most variation and greatest range in winning scores when compared to the other three men’s major championships. Here, the lowest score was -20 in 2022 and highest +3 in 2008.
Further, when examining scores from the top 25 finishing players in the four men’s majors over the last five years, the variation and range across the four rounds for each player was highest at The Open. Here, the average difference between a player’s best and worst rounds at The Open is six shots.
Fans were also reported to find The Open particularly difficult to predict when compared with other individual and team sports.
When asked who would win in Troon this July, a total of 29 different names were suggested, where in contrast, only 11 names were proposed for Wimbledon and seven for the upcoming Formula 1 season.
Colin Montgomerie, a winner of 54 professional titles, but who failed to win a major championship, said: “You can be the best in the world at this game and still have no idea what’s around the corner. As a player, it’s about playing those averages at times – how you react to the bad and the unlucky, that can be the difference between winning or losing.
“It’s what makes the game so exciting, to watch and play – it’s rarely a straight line, but that’s what always brings you back. As a Troon local, I know all too well how these bunkers and windy shores can affect the script – I can’t wait to watch the action unfold this week!”
Jonathan Castleman, Managing Director, Global Head of Brand and Brand Partnerships at HSBC, which carried out the survey and statistical analysis, said: “Sport and golf is full of unpredictable twists and turns and often echoes life which is why we love it so much as fans.
“It’s all about the next shot we take – and in the way a golfer needs a caddie and support team, we all need that support network to help us see around life’s corners and achieve our end goals.”
The 152nd Open is taking place from July 18-21 at Royal Troon, where HSBC will continue as Patron of The Open, having been so since 2011.
