Hideki Matsuyama will look to defend his title when the 2023 Sony Open tees off on Thursday, Jan. 12, from Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. Matsuyama secured his eighth PGA Tour title with a 23-under par performance in 2022, shooting 65 or below in his final three rounds. He’ll have some stiff competition in the Sony Open 2023 field, with the likes of Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and Keegan Bradley set to tee it up this week.
Matsuyama, who’s coming off a top-25 finish last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, is listed at 15-1 to repeat according to the latest 2023 Sony Open odds. Kim, who’s coming off a top-five finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, is the 11-1 favorite, with Sungjae Im (14-1) and Spieth (15-1) next in line on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2023 Sony Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm (+800) to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.
In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.
This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Sony Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2023 Sony Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2023 Sony Open: Matsuyama, the defending champion and one of the favorites at 15-1, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top 10. Matsuyama faced a five-shot deficit with just nine holes to play last year but fired a 31 on the back nine to finish at 23-under for the week.
However, Matsuyama has been extremely inconsistent this season, finishing T-21 or worse in each of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. Plus, Matsuyama has struggled mightily with his accuracy this season, ranking 136th on tour in greens in regulation percentage (66.98%). He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2023 Sony Open field.
Another surprise: Billy Horschel, a 32-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Horschel enters this week’s event full of confidence. That’s because the 36-year-old secured a top-15 finish at the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout in December, two unofficial PGA Tour events. He’s also had success at the Sony Open in his career, recording a T-7 finish in 2021. Horschel enters the 2023 Sony Open ranked third in strokes gained: approach the green (1.256) and 26th in one-putt percentage (43.52%), both of which will come in handy this week at Waialae. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2023 Sony Open picks
The model is also targeting five other golfers with odds of 22-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.
So who will win the Sony Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Sony Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Sony Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.
2023 Sony Open odds, field
See full Sony Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Tom Kim +1100
Sungjae Im +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1500
Jordan Spieth +1500
Russell Henley +2100
Tom Hoge +2200
Corey Conners +2200
Brian Harman +2600
Adam Scott +3100
Taylor Montgomery +3100
Billy Horschel +3200
Cameron Davis +3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3400
Keegan Bradley +3400
Keith Mitchell +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Maverick Mcnealy +3700
J.J. Spaun +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500
MacKenzie Hughes +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Harris English +5000
J.T. Poston +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Adam Svensson +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Chris Kirk +6000
Brendan Steele +6500
Hayden Buckley +6500
Brendon Todd +7500
Nick Hardy +8000
Aaron Rai +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
Chun-an Yu +9000
Russell Knox +9500
Greyson Sigg +9500
Patton Kizzire +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Justin Suh +11000
Ryan Armour +11000
Troy Merritt +11000
Brandon Wu +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
David Lipsky +12000
Chez Reavie +12000
David Lingmerth +13000
Kevin Streelman +13000
Sam Ryder +13000
Kazuki Higa +14000
Michael Thompson +14000
Lucas Glover +14000
James Hahn +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Taiga Semikawa +14000
Seonghyeon Kim +14000
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Nick Taylor +16000
Brian Stuard +16000
Harry Higgs +16000
Adam Long +16000
Keita Nakajima +16000
Tyson Alexander +16000
MJ Daffue +16000
John Huh +16000
Adam Schenk +17000
Scott Piercy +17000
Cole Hammer +17000
Zac Blair +19000
Ben Taylor +19000
Austin Eckroat +21000
Danny Lee +21000
Peter Malnati +21000
Byeong Hun An +21000
Yuto Katsuragawa +21000
